Finanzen / Bilanzen

Many Risks and a silent Winner

Declining economic growth and rising financing costs worldwide are putting pressure on corporate profits and stock prices. However, there are bright spots: “Tech stocks in the USA could benefit from a shift in interest rates. Japan is currently in a good position, and at the industry level, defensive business models should limit the investment risk for the investor”, says Carsten Gerlinger, Managing Director and Head of Asset Management at Moventum AM.

For some time now, the economy has been sending warning signals to stock investors. Europe is increasingly sliding towards a recession. The German economy, in particular, faces significant risks. In contrast, the growth in the USA has remained strong, mainly due to the expansive fiscal policy, which is unlikely to continue. “We expect that the deteriorating economic data will eventually weigh on stock markets”, says Gerlinger.

Recently, the US stock market outperformed its European counterpart, and the rise in stock prices was supported by a broader market base. “However, this development contrasts with the weaker macro data, which suggests a recession”, Gerlinger explains. Moreover, higher financing costs and diminished pricing power are increasingly squeezing company margins. “It might only take a spark to shift the mood”, Gerlinger remarks.

In the European stock market, the still positive profit expectations contradict the overall weak economic situation and the anticipated recession. China’s economic weakness, export dependency, and the highly cyclical industry also have negative impacts. “European stocks remain cheaper than US stocks and trade below their historical average”, Gerlinger notes.

Rising interest rates also burden profits, and as bond papers become more attractive, the yield advantage of stocks diminishes. “On the other hand, a potential shift in interest rates favors growth stocks, especially technology stocks, which continue to benefit from the AI hype and are mostly based in the USA”, says Gerlinger.

As a result, Moventum rates the US stock market neutrally at the country level. Europe is slightly underweighted, as are the Emerging Markets, primarily due to economic issues in China. In the long term, Emerging Markets remain appealing. The slight reduction in Europe and emerging countries is being invested in Japan, where Moventum now has a more substantial overweight. “Japan appears to be the ‘silent winner’ in this situation”, Gerlinger justifies the decision. The weak yen supports exports and thus the profits of exporting companies. The stock market also benefits from a strong domestic economy. “And a resurgence of the yen would also have very positive effects for the Euro investor”, Gerlinger adds.

In terms of style, the focus continues to be on technology or Quality Growth and also on Value. “We are increasing the weighting of technology, which should continue to benefit from AI-driven potential”, says Gerlinger. Moreover, the sector could be boosted by the prospect of falling interest rates. “However, some very ambitious valuations are a hindrance.” Defensive values from the healthcare sector, which offer stable growth potential even in economically challenging times, are also of interest. “However, the performance since the beginning of the year has been disappointing”, Gerlinger admits. For Value, Moventum focuses on funds that are broadly diversified across sectors and are more defensively positioned.

Additional information is available at www.moventum.lu

Über Moventum S.C.A

As an independent financial service partner, Moventum S.C.A. has been providing a home for financial service providers such as advisors and asset managers as well as institutional clients from all over the world for more than 20 years. The digital “MoventumOffice” platform offers access to more than 10,000 funds, ETFs and other securities. In addition, it allows financial advisors to open securities accounts for their clients, to place trading orders and to use analysis, reporting and support tools. Institutional clients are able to outsource their entire fund trading with complementary services to Moventum as part of collective or individual custody account management. A variety of fund services are assumed for asset managers, ranging from registrar and transfer agent services to fund accounting, company administration and domiciliation services.

Moventum Asset Management S.A. (Moventum AM) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Moventum S.C.A. Since 2019 Moventum AM manages Moventum’s own funds of funds and individual mandates as part of its asset management portfolios.

Firmenkontakt und Herausgeber der Meldung:

Moventum S.C.A
12, rue Eugène Ruppert
L2453 Luxembourg
Telefon: +352 (26154) 200
http://www.moventum.lu

Ansprechpartner:
Bodo Scheffels
news & numbers GmbH
Telefon: +49 (178) 4980733
E-Mail: bodo.scheffels@news-and-numbers.de
Isabel Melahn
news & numbers GmbH
Telefon: 040 / 8060 194-33
E-Mail: isabel.melahn@news-and-numbers.de
Für die oben stehende Pressemitteilung ist allein der jeweils angegebene Herausgeber (siehe Firmenkontakt oben) verantwortlich. Dieser ist in der Regel auch Urheber des Pressetextes, sowie der angehängten Bild-, Ton-, Video-, Medien- und Informationsmaterialien. Die United News Network GmbH übernimmt keine Haftung für die Korrektheit oder Vollständigkeit der dargestellten Meldung. Auch bei Übertragungsfehlern oder anderen Störungen haftet sie nur im Fall von Vorsatz oder grober Fahrlässigkeit. Die Nutzung von hier archivierten Informationen zur Eigeninformation und redaktionellen Weiterverarbeitung ist in der Regel kostenfrei. Bitte klären Sie vor einer Weiterverwendung urheberrechtliche Fragen mit dem angegebenen Herausgeber. Eine systematische Speicherung dieser Daten sowie die Verwendung auch von Teilen dieses Datenbankwerks sind nur mit schriftlicher Genehmigung durch die United News Network GmbH gestattet.

counterpixel